Yılmaz AKDİ, Yunus Emre KARAMANOĞLU, Afşin ŞAHİN

20993

EĞİTİM DÜZEYİNE GÖRE İŞSİZLİK, FİYATLAR VE SUÇ İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Bu çalışmada Türkiye aylık 2005: 01 ve 2011: 12 dönemi veri seti ile resmi suç olayları açıklanmaya çalışılmaktadır. Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) ve eğitim düzeyine göre İşsiz (UNE) sayılarının suç sayıları üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Suç sayısı, Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi ve Toplam İşsizlik arasında uzun dönem ilişki bulunamamıştır. Hâlbuki suç sayısı ve toplam işsizlik arasında ikili kointegrasyon ilişkisi gözlenmiştir. Daha sonra analiz sekiz farklı eğitim düzeyine göre ayrıştırılmış işsizlik rakamlarıyla tekrarlanmıştır. Eğitim düzeyinin işlenen suç sayısını açıklarken önemli bir değişken olduğu gözlenmiştir. Uzun dönem ilişki Engle-Granger (1987) ve Johansen kointegrasyon yöntemleriyle ele alınmıştır. Çalışmadaki bir diğer bulgu mevsimselliğin sonuçlar üzerindeki anlamlı etkileridir. Bu sebeple modele dışsal olarak mevsimsel kukla değişkenleri ilave edilmiştir. 
Anahtar Kelimeler:

Uzun Dönem İlişki, Kointegrasyon, Suç Ekonomisi, Güvenlik

UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION STATUS, PRICES AND CRIME RELATIONSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

In this study, the events related to official crime that have taken place in Turkey between 2005:01 and 2011:12, in monthly frequency, are tried to be explained. The effects of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment (UNE) disaggregated by level of education on to the number of crimes were discussed. It has been observed that there is no long-run relationship among the number of crimes, Consumer Price Index and total unemployment when they are considered together. However, we observe a bivariate cointegration between the number of crimes and the total unemployment. Then, the analysis was repeated with the total number of unemployed status arranged in eight different levels of education. It has been observed that the level of education is an important factor determining the number of committed crimes. In the study; the long-term relationship has been tested with Engle-Granger (1987) and Johansen cointegration methods. Another finding of the analysis is that the seasonality has significant effects on the results. For this reason, seasonal dummies were added as exogenously to the models. 
Keywords:

Long-Run Relationship, Cointegration, Crime Economics, Security,

PDF

___

  • Altındağ, D.T. (2012). Crime and Unemployment: Evidence from Europe, International Review of Law and Economics, Vol.:32, 145-157.
  • Andersen, M.A. (2012). Unemployment and Crime: A Neighborhood Level Panel Data Approach, Social Science Research, Vol.:41, 1615-1628.
  • Andrienko, Y. (2001). Explaining Crime Growth in Russia During Transition: Economic and Criminometric Approach, Centre for Economic and Financial Research, Moscow, February.
  • Aslan, A., Öcal, O. (2012). Continuity of Crime Rates in Turkey, [In Turkish], Niğde University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 5(1), 85-92.
  • Beki, C., K. Zeelenberg, N. Fielding. (1999). An Analysis of the Crime Rate in the Netherlands, 1950-1993, British Journal of Criminology, Oxford, 39(3), 401-415.
  • Brookman, F., Maguire, M., Pierpoint, H., Bennett, T. (2010). Handbook on Crime, Willan Publishing, USA.
  • Burdett, K., Lagos, R., Wright, R. (2003). Crime, Inequality and Unemployment, The American Economic Review, 93(5), 1764-1777.
  • Candor, D., Land, K.C. (1985). Unemployment and Crime Rates in the Post-World War II United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, American Sociological Review, 50(3), 317-332.
  • Carmichael, F., Ward, R. (2001). Male Unemployment and Crime in England and Wales, Economics Letters, Vol.:73, 111-115.
  • Cengiz, S., Şahin, A., Atasever, G. (2012). The Determinants of Turkish Agricultural Employment, Revista Tinerilor Economisti, 9(19), 174-189.
  • Cook, J., Cook, S. (2011). Are US Crime Rates Really Unit Root Processes?, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Vol.:27, 299-314.
  • Deadman, D. (2000). Forecasting Residential Burglary, Public Sector Economics Research Centre, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, February.
  • Edmark, K. (2005). Unemployment and Crime: Is There a Connection?, Scand. J. of Economics, 107(2), 353-373.
  • Greenberg, D.F. (2001). Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17(4), 291-327.
  • Gregory, A.W., Hansen, B.E. (1996). Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F., Andres, A.R., Yamamura, E. (2012). Modelling the Crime in Japan, Economic Modelling, Vol.:29, 1640-1645.
  • Hojman, D.E. (2004). Inequality, Unemployment and Crime in Latin American Cities, Crime, Law and Social Change, Vol.:41, 33-51.
  • Hooghie, M., Vanhoutte, B., Hardyns, V., Bircan, T. (2011). Unemployment, Inequality, Poverty and Crime, British Journal of Criminology, Vol.:51, 1-20.
  • Ivaschenko, O., Nivorozhkin, A., Nivorozhkin, E. (2012). The Role of Economic Crisis and Social Spending in Explaining Crime in Russia: Regional Panel Data Analysis, Eastern European Economics, 50(4), 21-41.
  • İçli, T.G. (1993). Criminals in Turkey, [In Turkish], Atatürk Cultural Center Publications, Issue: 71, 3rd print, Ankara.
  • Justus, M. S., Kassouf, A. L. (2013). A Cointegration Analysis Of Crime, Economic Activity, And Police Performance in São Paulo City, Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol.:40, 1-23.
  • Kapuskinski, C.A., Braithwaite, J., Chapman, B. (1998). Unemployment and Crime: Toward Resolving the Paradox, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 14(3), 215-243.
  • Laspa, C. (2013). Do The Economic Factors Affect Criminality? Evidence from Greece, 1991–2010, European Journal of Law and Economics. June.
  • Lee, D.Y., Holoviak, S.J. (2006). Unemployment and Crime: an Empirical Investigation, Applied Economics Letters, Vol.:13, 805–810.
  • Lee, J., Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., Strazicich, M. (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break, Appalachian State University Working Paper, No.:04-17, December.
  • Levitt, S.D. (2001). Alternative Strategies for Identifying the Link Between Unemployment and Crime, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17(4), December.
  • Mcdonald, Z. (2000). The Impact Of Under-Reporting On The Relationship Between Unemployment And Property Crime, Applied Economics Letters, Vol.:7, 659- 663.
  • Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R. (2004). Crime Rates, Male Youth Unemployment And Real İncome in Australia: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests, Applied Economics, Vol.:36, 2079–2095.
  • Neustrom, M., Norton, W. (1995). Economic Dislocation and Property Crime, Journal of Criminal Justice, 23(1), 29-39.
  • Patemoster, R., Bushway, S. D. (2001). Theoretical and Empirical Work on the Relationship Between Unemployment and Crime, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 17(4), December.
  • Paulsen, D., Robinson, M.B. (2004). Spatial Aspects of Crime: Theory and Practice, Pearson, USA.
  • Phillips, J., Land, K. C. (2012). The link between Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: An Analysis at the County, State, and National Levels, Social Science Research, Vol.:41, 681–694.
  • Polk, K., White, R. (1999). Economic Adversity and Criminal Behavior: Rethinking Youth Unemployment and Crime, Australian & New Zealand, Journal of Criminology, Vol.:32, 284-302.
  • Poutvaara, P., Priks, M. (2011). Unemployment and Gang Crime: Can Prosperity Backfire?, Economics of Governance, Vol.:12, 259–273.
  • Quetelet, A. (1842). A Treatise on Man and the Development of his Faculties, English translation 1968. New York: Burt Franklin.
  • Raphael, S., Winter-Ebmer, R. (2001). Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime, Journal of Law and Economics, 44(1), 259-283.
  • Şanlı, S.F. (1998). Structure of the Socio-Economic Factors Affecting Crime in Turkey, [In Turkish], (Unpublished Master's Thesis), Ankara, State Institute of Statistics.
  • Saridakis, G., Spengler, H. (2012). Crime, Deterrence and Unemployment in Greece: A Panel Data Approach, The Social Science Journal, Vol.:49, 167–174.
  • Sookram, S., Basdeo, M., Sumesar-Rai, K., Saridakis, G. (2010). Serious Crime in Trinidad and Tobago: An Empirical Analysis Using Time-Series Data between 1970-2007, Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies, Vol.:35, No.:1, March.
  • Soyaslan, D. (2003). Criminology, Yetkin Publications House, Ankara.
  • Sutherland, E.H., Cressey, D.R. (1966). Principles of Criminology, J.B. Limpincott Company, New York.
  • Vito, G., Holmes, R. M. (1994). Criminology, Theory, Research and Policy, Wadsworth Publishing Company.
  • Yearwood, D., Koinis, G. (2011). Revisiting property crime and economic conditions: An exploratory study to identify predictive indicators beyond unemployment rates, The Social Science Journal, Vol.:48, 145–158.
  • Williams, F.P., Mcshane, M.D. (1999) Criminological Theory, USA: Prentice Hall.
  • Wu, D., Wu, Z. (2012). Crime, İnequality and Unemployment in England and Wales, Applied Economics, Vol.:44, 3765–3775.
  • Yoon, O.K., Joo, H. J. (2005). A Contextual Analysis of Crime Rates: The Korean Case, Crime, Law and Social Change, Vol.:43, 31-55.
Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 2147-2912
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2012
  • Yayıncı: JANDARMA VE SAHİL GÜVENLİK AKADEMİSİ
Arşiv
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler

TERÖRİZMİ ANLAMAK

FATİH DEDEMEN, ERCAN ÇİTLİOĞLU

DEĞİŞEN EĞİTİM PARADİGMASININ GÜVENLİK ALGISINA VE JANDARMA EĞİTİM SİSTEMİNE ETKİSİ

GÖKHAN SARI, ERCAN SEYHAN

TÜRK HUKUKUNDA ÖNLEYİCİ MAKSATLI İLETİŞİMİN DENETLENMESİ TEDBİRİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

MESUT PINARBAŞI

ULUSLARARASI KRİZLER VE BAĞIMSIZ SORUŞTURMA KOMİSYONLARI

LEVENT ERSİN ORALLI

TÜRK SİLAHLI KUVVETLERİNİN KAMU DİPLOMASİSİ FAALİYETLERİ

HATİCE DOĞAN

EĞİTİM DÜZEYİNE GÖRE İŞSİZLİK, FİYATLAR VE SUÇ İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Yılmaz AKDİ, Yunus Emre KARAMANOĞLU, Afşin ŞAHİN