201117

RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 iklim senaryolarına göre konutlarda iklim değişikliği etki değerlendirmesi

Bina sektörü ve özellikle konut binaları, CO2 salımlarındaki büyük payları, önemli enerji tasarrufu potansiyelleri ve kullanıcılarının artan konfor beklentileri nedeniyle iklim değişikliğinde yüksek öncelikli bir alandır. Bu makale, İstanbul ilinde çok katlı tipik bir konut binası için iklim değişikliği etki değerlendirmesinin simülasyon temelli sonuçlarını sunmaktadır. Hükümetlerarası İklim Değişikliği Panelinin belirlediği, düşük/orta ve yüksek CO2 salımı olasılıklarını temsil eden RCP 4.5 ve RCP 8.5 projeksiyonları seçilmiş ve 2060 yılı için bu iki senaryoya ait saatlik iklim verileri oluşturulmuştur. Bina simülasyonlarında, doğal havalandırılmadan klimaya kadar farklı bina kullanımı profillerini temsil eden üç farklı soğutma senaryosu geliştirilmiştir. İncelenen bina performans metrikleri, bina ısıtma/soğutma enerji tüketimi, bina CO2 salımı ile kullanıcı ısıl konforu olarak seçilmiştir. Simülasyon sonuçlarına göre gelecekte öngörülen sıcaklık artışının, binalarda soğutma enerjisi tüketimi ve/veya kullanıcı konforu üzerinde güçlü bir etkiye sahip olacağını göstermektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar, gelecekte binaların iklim değişikliğine adaptasyonuna yönelik tedbirlerin alınması gerekliliğine ve elektrik üretiminde dekarbonizasyonun iklim değişikliğinin etkilerinin azaltılmasındaki önemine işaret etmektedir. Bu makalede sunulan analiz sonuçları, iklim değişikliği için retrofit çalışmaları konusunda gelecekteki çalışmalara da temel oluşturacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

iklim değişikliği, konut binaları, bina enerji tüketimi, kullanıcı ısıl konforu

Climate Change Impact Assessment in Residential Buildings utilizing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Projections

The building industry, especially residential buildings, is a high priority area in climate change due to its large share of CO2 emissions, significant energy saving potentials and the increased comfort expectations of building occupants. This paper presents the simulation-based results of the climate change impact assessment for a typical multi-storey residential building in Istanbul. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections that are defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), representing low / medium and high CO2 emission projections, were selected and hourly climate data for each projection were generated for 2060. In building simulations, three different cooling scenarios were developed, representing different occupancy profiles, from natural ventilation to air conditioning. The selected building performance metrics were building heating / cooling energy consumption, building CO2 emissions and occupant thermal comfort. According to the simulation results, global warming in the future will have a strong effect on cooling energy consumption and / or user comfort in buildings. The results of the study point to the necessity of the development of adaptive strategies against climate change in the future and the importance of decarbonization in electricity generation to mitigate the effects of climate change. The results of the analyses presented in this article will also serve as a basis for future studies on retrofit studies for climate change.

Keywords:

climate change, residential buildings, building energy consumption, occupant thermal comfort,

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