Özhan TUNCAY, Recep Kök

18784

TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA

Birinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında Altın Standardı Sisteminin çöküşü, yoğun kambiyo kontrolleri ile farklı döviz kuru rejimlerinin uygulanmasını beraberinde getirmişti. İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında yürürlüğe konulan Bretton Woods sistemi ise sabit, fakat ayarlanabilir bir kur sistemi oluşturmuştu. Ancak sistemin çöküşü ile birlikte sabit kur sistemi terk edilerek çok sayıda farklı kur rejimi uygulanmaya başlandı. Ancak sistemin çöküşü ile birlikte döviz kur rejiminin seçimini belirleyen unsurlar ile gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin farklı yapısal özelliklerinin olası etkilerine ilişkin tartışmalar da artış gösterdi.Sermaye hareketlerinin bütün dünyada gittikçe serbestleştirilmesi, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde optimum döviz kuru rejiminin seçimini konuya ilişkin tartışmaların merkezine oturtmuş; sermaye hareketlerindeki sürekli artışlar, döviz kurlarının oluşumuna ilişkin yeni modellerin ve optimum para alanları teorisi ile ortaya konulmuş yaklaşımların yanı sıra “İki Kutup Hipotezi” ya da “Dalgalanma Korkusu Fenomeni” gibi yeni bazı yaklaşımların önünü açmıştır. Ancak ülkelerin ekonomik yapılarının farklılığının da etkisiyle döviz kuru sistemi tercihi konusunda bir görüş birliği oluşamamıştır. Temel olarak döviz kuru sistemleri sabit, esnek kur sistemleri ve karma kur sistemleri olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Optimum Para Alanı değişkenleri ile yeni bazı finansal değişkenlerden yararlanılarak Poirson (2001) tarafından geliştirilen bir döviz kuru esneklik indeksi kullanılmış ve Türkiye içi en ideal döviz kuru sisteminin hangisi olacağını belirlemek amacıyla Panel veri analizi ve simülasyon yöntemlerine başvurulmuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

Döviz Kuru, Döviz Kuru Rejimi Tercihi, Türkiye

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Keywords:

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Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1300-7262
  • Başlangıç: 1984
  • Yayıncı: Marmara Üniversitesi
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