PETROL FİYATLARINDAKİ DEĞİŞİKLİKLERİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE FİNANSAL GELİŞİM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN BELİRLENMESİ: VAR YÖNTEMİ YARDIMIYLA TÜRKİYE İÇİN BİR ANALİZ
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme ve finansal kalkınma üzerindeki etkilerinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak, değişkenlerin 1983-2018 yılları arasındaki yıllık verileri dikkate alınmıştır. Bu bağlamda, VAR metodolojisi kullanılarak üç farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Analiz sonuçları petrol fiyatlarının finansal piyasalar üzerinde ciddi bir etkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Belirtilen konuya ek olarak, petrol fiyatlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde düşük ölçüde etkili olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ekonomik büyümenin sürekli olabilmesi için önce petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın azaltılması tavsiye edilmektedir. Bu husustan yola çıkarak, Türkiye’nin enerji konusunda dışa bağımlılığını azaltmasının gerektiği anlaşılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, ülke içerisindeki enerji kaynaklarına yönelik arama faaliyetlerinin arttırılması gerekmektedir. Söz konusu arama faaliyetlerinin daha etkin bir şekilde gerçekleştirilebilmesi için yeterli teknolojik donanıma ve yetkin personele ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Belirtilen hususa ek olarak, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanılması da Türkiye’nin enerji konusunda dışarıya olan bağımlılığını azaltacaktır. Bu çerçevede, rüzgar, güneş, jeotermal, biyokütle ve hidroelektrik gibi yenilenebilir enerji alternatiflerinin daha fazla kullanılabilmesine yönelik verilecek devlet teşvikleri önem arz etmektedir. Bu durum, Türkiye’nin kendi enerji kaynaklarını kullanabilmesine katkı sağlayacaktır. Aksi durumda, petrol fiyatlarındaki ani artış, ülkedeki finansal sistemin etkinliğinin azalmasına yol açacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Petrol Fiyatı, Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme, VAR Analizi
DETERMINING THE INFLUENCE OF OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: AN ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY WITH VAR METHODOLOGY
In this study, it is aimed to determine the effects of oil prices changes in economic growth and financial development in Turkey. For this purpose, annual data of these variables are taken into account for the years between 1983 and 2018. In this context, three different models have been created by considering VAR methodology. The results of the analysis show that oil prices have no serious impact on financial development. In addition to the stated issue, it is also concluded that oil prices have a small influence on the economic growth. It can be recommended that in order for economic development to become sustainable, the volatility in oil prices must be lowered. Based on these considerations, it is understood that Turkey needed to decrease its dependence on foreign energy. In this context, it is necessary to increase the exploration activities for energy resources in the country. Sufficient technological equipment and competent personnel are needed to carry out these search activities more effectively. In addition to the mentioned issues, the use of renewable energy sources will also reduce the dependence of the outside and Turkey's energy. In this context, government incentives to use more renewable energy alternatives such as wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric power are important. In this case, Turkey will use its energy resources to be contributed. Otherwise, the sudden increase in oil prices will lead to a decrease in the efficiency of the financial system in the country.
Keywords:
Oil Price, Economic Growth, Financial Development, VAR Analysis,
___
- Abraham, Rebecca - Harrington, Charles. “Determinants of Oil Futures Prices”, Theorical Economics Letters 6 (2016): 742-749.
- Albaity, Mohamed - Mustafa, Hasan. “International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 8/1 (2018): 69-81.
- Al-Mulali, Usama - Gholipour, Hassan - Al-hajj, Ekhlas. “The Nonlinear Effects of Oil Prices on Tourism Arrivals in Malaysia”, Current Issues in Tourism (2019): 1-5.
- Alodayni, Saleh. “Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters”, International Journal of Financial Studies 4/4 (2016): 23.
- Alredany, Wajdi Hamza Dawod. “A Regression Analysis of Determinants Affecting Crude Oil Price”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 8/4 (2018): 110-119.
- Baldoni, Edoardo & Coderoni, Silvia & D’Orazio, Marco & Di Giuseppe, Elisa & Esposti, Roberto. “The Role of Economic and Policy Variables in Energy-Efficient Retrofitting Assessment. A Stochastic Life Cycle Costing Methodology”, Energy Policy 129 (2019): 1207-1219.
- Baumeister, Christiane, & Kilian, Lutz. Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why The price of Oil May still Surprise Us (No. 525). CFS Working Paper Series, 2015.
- Bayat, Tayfur & Nazlioglu, Saban & Kayhan, Selim, “Exchange rate and oil price interactions in transition economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland”, Panoeconomicus, 62(3), (2015): 267-285.
- Byrne, Joseph P & Lorusso, Marco & Xu, Bing, “Oil prices, fundamentals and expectations”, Energy Economics, 79 (2019): 59-75.
- Caldara, Dario & Cavallo, Michele & Iacoviello, Matteo, “Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 103 (2019): 1-20.
- Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, “Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies”, Energy Economics, 54 (2016): 417-430.
- Drachal, Krzysztof, “Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework—Have the determinants changed over time?”, Energy Economics, 60 (2016): 35-46.
- Gupta, Kartick, “Oil price shocks, competition, and oil & gas stock returns—Global evidence”, Energy Economics, 57 (2016): 140-153.
- Hesse, Heiko - Poghosyan, Tigran. “Oil Prices and Bank Profitability: Evidence from Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa”. Financial Deepening and Post-Crisis Development in Emerging Markets. 247-270. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016.
- Kruse, Robinson - Wegener, Christoph, “Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant”, Energy Economics, 85 (2020): 104328.
- Le, Duong Thuy, “Ex-ante determinants of volatility in the crude oil market”, International Journal of Financial Research, 6(1) (2015): 1.
- Li, Lingchao & Liu, Jin Long & H., de Jong, Wil & Youn, Yeo-Chang, “Economic globalization, trade and forest transition-the case of nine Asian countries”, Forest Policy and Economics, 76 (2017): 7-13.
- Lieber, Robert J, “Oil and power after the Gulf War”, International Security, 17(1) (1992): 155-176.
- Nazlioglu, Saban & Gormus, Alper & Soytas, Uğur, “Oil prices and monetary policy in emerging markets: structural shifts in causal linkages”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 55(1) (2019): 105-117.
- Oladosu, Gbadebo A. & Leiby, Paul N & Bowman, David C & Uría-Martínez, Rocio & Johnson, M. Megan, “Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies. Energy policy, 115 (2018): 523-544.
- Thorbecke, Willem, “Oil prices and the US economy: Evidence from the stock market”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 61 (2019): 103-137.
- Tignor, Robert, “Worlds together, worlds apart: a history of the world from the beginnings of humankind to the present”, WW Norton, (2014)
- Yu, Zhongdong & Liu, Wie & Chen, Liming & Eti, Serkan & Dinçer, Hasan & Yüksel, Serhat, “The effects of electricity production on industrial development and sustainable economic growth: A VAR analysis for BRICS countries”, Sustainability, 11(21) (2019): 58-95.
- Volkov, Nikanor I & Yuhn, Ky-Hyang, “Oil price shocks and exchange rate movements”, Global Finance Journal, 31 (2016): 18-30.
- Wei, Yu & Liu, Jing & Lai, Xiaodong & Hu, Yang, “Which determinant is the most informative in forecasting crude oil market volatility: Fundamental, speculation, or uncertainty?”, Energy Economics, 68 (2017): 141-150.
- ISSN: 2717-7637
- Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
- Başlangıç: 2020
- Yayıncı: Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Merkezi
Sayıdaki Diğer Makaleler
İBN HALDÛN VE TOPLUM SÖZLEŞMESİ TEORİSYENLERİNİN TOPLUM VARLIĞINA DAİR MÜLÂHAZALARININ MUKÂYESESİ
Serhat YUKSEL, Gözde Gülseven UBAY, Damla SEZER
TÜRKİYE’NİN OTOMOBİLİ’NİN GZFT ANALİZİ
KKTC’NİN HÜKÛMET SİSTEMİ: TARTIŞMALAR VE ÇÖZÜM ÖNERİLERİ
CENTRAL PARK’IN TARİHSEL SÜRECİ, KENT VE KENTLEŞME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ