YAKALAMADA BAŞARILI OLAN İKİ ÜLKE OLARAK POLONYA VE TÜRKİYE’ VE 2000-2015 DÖNEMİNDE KARŞILIKLI TİCARETLERİ

Makalenin konusu, Polonya ve Türkiye’nin karşılıklı ikili ticaretlerini de kapsayacak şekilde GSYİH büyümesinin ve istikrarının 2000-2015 yılları arasındaki karşılaştırmalı bir makroekonomik analizidir. Yazarlar, Polonya ve Türkiye’nin ekonomik performanslarını AB-28 makroekonomik göstergelerini, özellikle de Almanya ve İspanya gibi iki referans ülkeyi dikkate alarak yakalama sürecine odaklanmakta ve değerlendirmektedirler. Analiz sonuçları, ekonomik literatürde iyi bilinen, bölgesel ekonomik entegrasyonun daha gelişmiş ülkelerle yakınsama sürecinin hızlandırılmasını sağladığını teyit etmektedir. Polonya ve Türkiye yakalama konusunda başarılı olmuş ülkelerdir. Ekonomik başarılarının kaynağının sistemik reformlara ve AB ile entegrasyona (Polonya’nın üyeliği ve Türk gümrük anlaşması) bağlı olduğu varsayımı doğrulandı. Analizin bu bölümünün önemli bir sonucu, gerek Polonya gerekse Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesinin sürdürülmesinde 2008-2015 döneminde iç talebin önemli rol oynadığına işaret ediyor.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye, Polonya, başarıyı yakalamak, yakınsamanın temel faktörleri, Avrupa entegrasyonu etkisi, ikili ticaret

POLAND AND TURKEY AS THE SUCCESSFUL CATCHING-UP COUNTRIES AND THEIR BILATERAL TRADE IN 2000–2015

The subject of the paper is comparative macroeconomic analysis of GDP growth and stability in the economies of Poland and Turkey in 2000–2015 as well as their bilateral trade. Authors focus on the process of catching up and evaluate effects of economic convergence of Poland and Turkey to average macroeconomic indicators for EU-28 and in particular two reference countries – Germany and Spain. Results of the analysis confirm the thesis well acknowledged in economic literature that regional economic integration enables speeding-up of the process of convergence with more developed countries. Poland and Turkey are successful catching-up countries. The assumption that the source of their economic success lies in systemic reforms and integration with the EU (Poland’s membership and Turkish customs agreement) was confirmed. An important conclusion of this part of the analysis is pointing out the role of domestic demand in maintaining economic growth of both Poland and Turkey in 2008–2015.

Keywords:

Turkey, Poland, catching up success, main factors of convergence, European integration impact, bilateral trade,

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