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Toplam Faktör Verimliliği Artışı ve Demografi: Türkiye Örneği

Toplam faktör verimliliği ekonomik büyümeyi açıklamada önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Toplam faktör verimliliğini etkileyen önemli faktörlerden biri de ülkelerin demografik yapısıdır. Tüm ülkeler belli bir noktada demografik dönüşüm yaşamaktadır. Bu demografik dönüşüm toplam faktör verimliliğini birçok kanal vasıtasıyla etkileyebilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, ülkelerin demografik geçiş sürecinden tam olarak faydalanması, uygulanacak uygun politikalara bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada, 1986-2017 döneminde demografik faktörler ile toplam faktör verimliliği artış olasılığı arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Toplam faktör verimliliği artış olasılığı ve demografik yapı arasındaki ilişki probit regresyon modeli ile test edilmektedir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre, kişi başına gelir, kentleşme, beklenen yaşam süresi ve nüfus yoğunluğundaki artış toplam faktör verimliliği büyüme olasılığını artırırken; kişi başına sermaye stoku, bağımlılık oranı, genç bağımlılık oranı ve doğurganlık oranındaki artış ise toplam faktör verimliliği büyüme olasılığını azaltmaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, analiz bulguları Türkiye’de demografik yapı ile toplam faktör verimliliği arasında güçlü bir ilişki olduğunu işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Demografi

Total Factor Productivity Growth and Demographics: The Case of Turkey

Total factor productivity plays a crucial role in explaining overall economic growth. One of the important factors affecting the total factor productivity is the demographic structure of countries. All countries in the world are likely to experience demographic transition at some point. There are many channels through which demographic transition may impact total factor productivity. If a country wants to take full advantage of the demographic transition, proper policies should be implemented. This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between demographic factors and the likelihood of total factor productivity growth over the period of 1986-2017 in Turkey. Probit regression is applied to analyze the link between total factor productivity and demographic structure. The results show that an increase in income per capita, urban population, life expectancy at birth, and population density increases the likelihood of total factor productivity growth whereas an increase in capital stock per capita, dependency ratio, young dependency ratio, and fertility rate decreases the probability of total factor productivity growth.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Total Factor Productivity, Demographics,

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