MENA Ülkelerinde Ticari Dışa Açıklık Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Analizi

Bu çalışmada ticari dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, 10 MENA ülkesine ait 1976-2017 yıllarını kapsayan verilerle analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Nedensellik ilişkisini test edebilmek için, yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliği konularını dikkate alan, Konya (2006) tarafından geliştirilmiş olan bootstrap granger nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bu bağlamda, öncelikle yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim homojenliği testleri yapılmış, kesitler arası bağımlılık olduğu ve eğimin heterojen olduğu görüldükten sonra bootstrap nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Tahmin sonuçları ele alınan ülkelerde ticari dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasında güçlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Sadece Mısır ve Ürdün’de ticari dışa açıklıktan ekonomik büyümeye pozitif nedensellik olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Öte yandan, büyümeden ticari dışa açıklığa nedensellik ilişkisi ise Suudi Arabistan ve İsrail için tespit edilmiştir. Nedenselliğin işareti Suudi Arabistan için pozitif iken, İsrail için negatiftir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; ticari dışa açıklık ya da ticari liberalizasyonun ele alınan ülkelerin çoğunun ekonomik büyümesi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri Analizi

Trade Openness and Economic Growth in MENA Countries: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis

This study examines the causal relationship between trade opennes and economic growth for 10 MENA countries by using panel data framework over the period of 1976 and 2017. To see the causality relationship bootstrap granger causality approach applied that considers the both cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity issues among countries. In this context, firstly the cross-sectional dependency and slope homogeneity tests were conducted, after seeing the cross-sectional dependency and the slope hetereogeneity, the bootstrap causality test was applied. Obtained results do not exhibit strong causal relationship between economic growth and trade openness for the sample countries. There is positive causality from trade openness to growth only for Eagypt and Jordan. On the other hand, growth do cause trade openness only for Saudi Arabia and Israel. While sign of the causality is positive for Saudi Arabia, it is negative for Israel. Results imply that trade openness or trade liberalization do not have a significant effect on economic growth for the sample countries.

Keywords:

Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis,

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