Doha MUSTAFA
Arap Baharı Başkaldırıları: Devrimci Motifler ve Teorik Açıklamalar
Arap dünyası üzerine olan otoriterizm ve demokratikleşme literatürü, Arap ayaklanmalarını tahmin edecek ve açıklayabilecek siyasi akıldan mahrumdur. Bu makalede Ortadoğu demokratikleşmesi ve otoriterizmi üzerine yazılanlar üzerinden bir literatür kritiği yaparak ve üçüncü kuşağın devrimlerin sebepleri üzerine görüşleri üzerinden Arap ayaklanmalarının teorik izahatını yapacağım. Teorik tezler State Fragility ve Transformation Index'den 8 Arap ülkesi (Mısır, Tunus, Suriye, Bahreyn, Ürdün, Libya, Yemen, Cezayir) için alınan ampirik bulgulardan desteklenmektir. Bu makale söz konusu ülkelerdeki devrim modellerinin farklarını, bunun nasıl teorik bir dil ile açıklanabileceğini ve bu eş zamanlı büyük değişimlerin bölgede nasıl bir yeni siyasi harita çizebileceğini anlatmayı amaçlamaktadır. Arap ayaklanmaları üzerine teorik tartışmalar ve mevcut ampirik bulgular üzerinden bu makalede devrimlerin cebir, ekonomik zorluklar ve devletin siyasi yapısından ziyade seçkin sınıfın dayanışması, silahlı güçlerin özerkliği, milli birlik ve bölge jeopolitiğine karşın ortaya çıktığı savunulmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Arap ayaklanmaları, Otoriteryanizm, Elit dayanışması, Silahlı güçlerin otonomisi, Ulusal birlik, Jeopolitik, Mısır, Tunus
Arab Spring Uprisings: Revolutionary Patterns and Theoretical Explanations
Literature on authoritarianism and democratization in the Arab world lacks the required political shrewdness to predict and explain the trajectory of current Arab uprisings. In this paper, I briefly highlight theoretical explanations of concurrent Arab uprisings through a literature review on the writings of democratization, authoritarianism in the Middle East and third generation insights on the causes of revolutions. Theoretical explanations are supported with empirical evidences from State Fragility, and Transformation Index on the democracy status of eight Arab countries: Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya, Yemen, and Algeria. The paper seeks to illustrate differences of revolutionary patterns among those countries, how this can be theoretically explained, and how concurrent upheavals would draw a new political map for the region. Through theoretical discussion to Arab uprisings, and available empirical evidences the paper argues that revolutionary situation is more likely to emerge due to level of elite’s solidarity, autonomy of armed forces, national unity and geopolitics of the region compared with other factors like coercion, and economic, and political structure of the state.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Arab Uprisings, Authoritarianism, Elite’s solidarity, Autonomy of armed forces, National unity, Geopolitics, Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya, Yemen, Algeria

Kaynakça

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