Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme

Bu çalışma uluslararası sistem ve istikrar üzerinedir. Farklı teorik perspektiflerimukayese ederek, kutupluluk ile istikrar arasındaki ilişkiyi tartışır.Uluslararası sistemler sistem içerisindeki güç dağılımına göre tek kutuplu,çift kutuplu ve çok kutuplu yapılar olarak isimlendirilir. Bu yapılardan hangisinindaha istikrarlı olduğu üzerine uzun tartışmalar yaşanmıştır. Bahsigeçen tartışmaların ana gündem maddesi hangi uluslararası güç dağılımınındaha istikrarlı olduğu üzerinedir. Önceleri çok kutuplu yapının daha istikrarlıolduğu düşünülürken, zaman içerisinde çift kutuplu sistemlerin dahaistikrarlı olduğu iddiası yaygınlık kazanmıştır. Günümüzde ise tek kutuplusistemlerin çift kutuplu sistemlere kıyasla daha istikrarlı olabileceği fikri öneçıkmaktadır. Çalışma bu ilişki üzerine yapılan tartışmaların arkasındaki ikitemel teorik mantığı ortaya koyar: güdüler mantığı ve mecburiyetler mantığı.Mecburiyet mantığı uluslararası istikrarı öngörmede daha başarılı gibigörünmesine rağmen, bu mantığın temel teorik sorunları olmadığı söylenemez.Çalışma kutupluluk ile istikrar arasındaki ilişkiyi teorik olarak açıklamakve öngörmek adına imkânlar mantığını teklif etmektedir. Bu mantığagöre uluslararası istikrar devletlerin imkân hesaplamalarının bir sonucu olarakgörülebilir.

International System and Stability: A Conceptual Assessment

This study is about international system and stability. By comparing different theoretical approaches, it discusses the relation between polarity and stability. It is quite common to identify international systems as unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar structures. There is a wide ranging discussion over which one of these structures represents the most stable system. Although multipolar structures were admitted as more stable previously, later the claim of bipolar stability became more common. Recently, the idea that unipolar structures are more stable compared to bipolar structures has gained more ground. This study identifies two main theoretical logics behind the discussions over the relation between polarity and stability: a logic of motivations and a logic of obligations. Although the logic of obligations appears as doing better than the logic of motivations in predicting international stability, it has its own theoretical shortcomings. The study further offers the logic possibilities in order to theoretically explain and predict the relation between polarity and stability. According to this logic, international stability can be considered an outcome of states’ calculations of possibilities

___

  • Brooks, S. G. ve Wohlforth, W. C. (2008). World out of balance: International relations and the challenge of American Primacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Christensen, T. J. ve Snyder, J. (1990). Chain Gangs and passed bucks: Predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity. International Organization, 44 (2), 137-168.
  • Copeland, D. C. (1996). Neorealism and the myth of bipolar stability: Toward a new dynamic realist theory of major war. Security Studies, 5 (3), 29-89.
  • Crawford, T. W. (2011). Preventing enemy coalitions: How wedge strategies shape power politics. International Security, 35 (4), 155-189.
  • Desch, M. C. (2007/2008). America’s liberal illiberalism: The ideological origins of overreaction in U.S. foreign policy. International Security, 32 (3), 7-43.
  • Deutsch, K. W. ve Singer, D. (1964). Multipolar power systems and international stability. World Politics, 16 (3), 390-406.
  • Furniss, E. S. J. (1961). De Gaulle’s France and NATO: An interpretation. International Organization, 15 (3), 349-365.
  • Gaddis, J. L. (1986). The long peace: Elements of stability in the postwar international system. International Security, 10, (4), 99- 142.
  • Gilpin, R. (1981). War and change in world politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Gilpin, R. (1988). The theory of hegemonic war. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18 (4), 591-613.
  • Gulick, E. V. (1955). Europe’s classical balance of power: A case history of the theory and practice of one of the great concepts of European statecraft. Westport: Greenwood Press.
  • Guzzini, S. (1993). Structural power: The limits of neorealist power analysis. International Organization, 47 (3), 443-478.
  • He, K. (2012). Undermining adversaries: Unipolarity, threat perception and negative balancing strategies after the Cold War. Security Studies, 21 (2), 154-191.
  • Hopf, T. (1991). Polarity, the offense defense balance, and war. The American Political Science Review, 85 (2), 475-493.
  • Hughes, J. L. (1988). The origins of World War II in Europe: British deterrence failure and German expansionism. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18 (4), 851-891.
  • Huntington, S. P. (1999). The lonely superpower. Foreign Affairs, 78 (2), 35-49.
  • Ikenberry, J. (2001). After victory: Institutions, strategic restraint, and the rebuilding of order after major wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Kagan, R. (2008). The eeturn of history and the end of dreams. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
  • Kennedy, J. F. (1962). Why England slept. New York: Dolphin Books. Kennedy, P. (1987) The rise and fall of the great powers: Economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Random House.
  • Kim, T. (2011). Why alliances entangle but seldom entrap states. Security Studies, 20 (3), 350-377.
  • Krauthammer, C. (1990/91). The unipolar moment. Foreign Affairs, 70 (1), s. 23-33.
  • Kupchan, C. A. (2014). The normative foundations of hegemony and the coming challenge to Pax Americana. Security Studies, 23 (2), 219-257.
  • Larson, D. W. ve Shevchenko, A. (2010). Status seekers: Chinese and Russian responses to U.S. primacy. International Security, 34 (4), 63-95.
  • Layne, C. (1993). The unipolar illusion: Why new great powers will rise?. International Security, 17 (4), 5-51.
  • Layne, C. (2006). The unipolar illusion revisited: The coming end of the United States’ unipolar moment. International Security, 31 (2), 7-41.
  • Lebow, R. N. ve Risse-Kappen, T. (Der.). (1995) International relations theory and the end of the Cold War. New York: Columbia University Press.
  • Lieber, K. A. (2007). The new history of World War I and what it means for international relations theory. International Security, 32 (2), 155-191.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Back to the future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. International Security, 15 (1), 5-56.
  • Midlarsky, M. I. (1993). Polarity and international stability. American Political Science Review, 87 (1), 171-180.
  • Monteiro, N. P. (2011/2012). Unrest assured: Why unipolarity is not peaceful. International Security, 36 (3), 9-40.
  • Monten, J. (2005). The roots of the Bush doctrine: Power, nationalism, and democracy in U.S. strategy. International Security, 29 (4), 112-156.
  • Morgenthau, H. J. (1993). Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace. New York: McGraw-Hill Inc.
  • Oye, K. A. (1986). Cooperation under anarchy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Press-Barnathan, G. (2006). Managing the hegemon: NATO under unipolarity. Security Studies, 15 (2), 271–309.
  • Pressman, J. (2009). Power without influence: The Bush Administration’s foreign policy failure in the Middle East. International Security, 33 (4), 149-179.
  • Sagan, S. D. (1986). 1914 revisited: Allies, offense, and instability. International Security, 11 (2), 151-175.
  • Schmidt, B. C. ve Williams, M. C. (2008). The Bush doctrine and the Iraq War: Neoconservatives versus realists. Security Studies, 17 (2), 191-220.
  • Slaughter, A. M. (2004). A new world order. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Tessman, B. ve Wolfe, W. (2011). Great powers and strategic hedging: The case of Chinese energy security strategy. International Studies Review, 13 (2), 214-240.
  • Tranchtenberg, M. (2007). Preventive war and U.S. foreign policy. Security Studies, 16 (1), 1-31.
  • Van Evera, S. (1984). “The cult of the offensive and the origins of the First World War”, International Security, 9 (1), 58-107. Waltz, K. N. (1964). The stability of a bipolar world. Daedalus, 93 (3), 881-909.
  • Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley, Reading.
  • Waltz, K. N. (1993). The emerging structure of international politics. International Security, 18 (2), 44-79.
  • Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25 (1), 5-41.
  • Wilkinson, D. (1999). Unipolarity without hegemony. International Studies Review, 1 (2), s. 141-172.
  • Williams, M. C. ve Neumann, I. B. (2000). From alliance to security community: NATO, Russia, and the power of identity. Millennium - Journal of International Studies, 29 (2), 357-387.
  • Williamson, S. R. J. (1988). The origins of World War I. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18 (4), 795-818.
  • Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24 (1), s. 5-41.
  • Wohlforth, W. C. (2002). “US strategy in A unipolar world. America unrivaled: The future of the balance of power. Ikenberry G. J.(Ed.). Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

___

APA YALÇIN H (2015). Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 10(1), 209 - 229.
Chicago YALÇIN HASAN BASRİ Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi 10, no.1 (2015): 209 - 229.
MLA YALÇIN HASAN BASRİ Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, vol.10, no.1, 2015, ss.209 - 229.
AMA YALÇIN H Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi. 2015; 10(1): 209 - 229.
Vancouver YALÇIN H Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme. Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi. 2015; 10(1): 209 - 229.
IEEE YALÇIN H "Uluslararası Sistem ve İstikrar: Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme." Akademik İncelemeler Dergisi, 10, ss.209 - 229, 2015.