Sibel KARĞIN, Koray KAYALIDERE, Tuna Can GÜLEÇ, Deniz ERER

ALMANYA, FRANSA VE AMERIKA’ DAN TÜRK HISSE SENEDI PIYASALARINA STOK GETIRI VOLATILITE YAYILIMLARI

Bu çalışmanın amacı Almanya, Fransa ve Amerika hisse senedi piyasalarının Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası üzerindeki oynaklık yayılımı etkisini incelemektir. 02.01.2004 - 06.02.2017 dönemi için günlük frekansda DAX 30, CAC 40, S&P 500 ve BİST 100 endekslerine ilişkin kapanış verileri kullanılmıştır. Koşullu varyans değerlerini elde etmek amacıyla E-GARCH(1,1) modelinden yaralanılmıştır. Volatilitenin normal bir ekonomik konjonktürde nispeten daha dar bir bant içinde olması olağandır. Buna karşın küresel riskin yüksek olduğu kriz dönemlerinde ise daha büyük bir aralıkta seyretmesi beklenen bir durumdur. Dolayısıyla risk açısından farklılık gösteren ekonomik koşullarda, piyasalar arası oynaklık yayılımı davranışlarının da farklılaşması rasyonel bir beklentidir. Bu açıdan araştırmada söz konusu durumu dikkate alan Threshold VAR (TVAR) modellemesi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda küresel riskin düşük olduğu rejimde BİST 100 endeksi üzerindeki yayılım etkisinin göreli olarak düşük olduğu, buna karşın küresel riskin yüksek olduğu rejimde ise söz konusu etkinin nispeten yüksek olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Buna ek olarak BİST 100 endeksinin bu gelişmiş ülkelere ait 3 endeks içerisinden en yoğun olarak S&P endeksinden etkilendiği bulgulanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Volatilite Yayılımı, E-GARCH, TVAR, BIST100, DAX30

SPILLOVERS OF STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY TO TURKISH EQUITY MARKETS FROM GERMANY, FRANCE, AND AMERICA

The aim of this study is to examine the volatility spillover effects of German, French and American stock market indices on BIST 100 Turkish stock market index. Dataset consists of daily closing price observations starting from January 2, 2004, until February 6, 2017, for indices DAX 30, CAC 40, S&P 500 and BIST 100. E-GARCH(1,1) method has been used to model the conditional variance. Volatility is in a relatively narrow band under a non-crisis economic conjuncture. On the other hand, it is expected that the global risk will be higher during crisis periods. Therefore, the differentiation in the volatility spillover behavior among the markets while under different economic conditions is a rational expectation. In this regard, the Threshold VAR (TVAR) model was used in the study. In the result of the study, it has been observed that the volatility spillover effect on the BIST 100 index is relatively low in the regimes where the global risk is low, whereas the effect is relatively higher in the regime where the global risk is high. Furthermore, results of analysis also indicate that S&P is the most influential index to affect BIST 100 both in high and low-risk regimes.

Keywords:

Volatility Spillover, E-GARCH, TVAR, BIST100, DAX30,

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