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Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi

Yıl 2008 , Cilt 23 , Sayı 2

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Makale özeti
Başlık :

An analysıs of busıness cycles under regıme shıfts: the turkısh economy and industrıal sector

Yazarlar :
Yazar kurumları :
Gazi Üniversitesi1
Görüntülenme :
171
DOI :
Özet Türkçe :

This paper analyzes the time series behavior of the annual growth rate of Turkey's GDP and growth rate of its industrial sector GDP's. Drawing on the work of Hamilton (1989), we examine the two series for evidence of periodic, discrete shifts in the mean using a two-state Markov regime switching model. The results provide strong evidence that shifts in the mean of the growth process both general and sectoral is a prominent feature of the data. According to probability results, there is one switch between the regimes in general growth process and there are five switches in industrial sector growth process.

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