Suriye Krizi’nde Türkiye ve İran Arasındaki Stratejik Etkileşim: 2011-2015 Zaman Diliminin Oyun Kuramsal Analizi

Suriye Krizi, Türkiye ve İran’ın Ortadoğu bölgesine dair çatışan stratejik çıkarlarını gün yüzüne çıkarmıştır. Nitekim Türkiye Suriye Krizi’ne dair Beşar Esad rejimine dair politikalar izlerken; İran Esad rejiminin iktidarda kalması için kaynaklarını seferber etmiştir. Türkiye ve İran’ın Suriye Krizi minvalinde çatışan bu politikaları iki ülkenin bölgesel hedefleriyle yakından ilişkilidir. Bu argüman temelinden yola çıkarak, eldeki çalışma Türkiye ve İran’ın bölgesel ihtiraslarını bağımsız değişken ve bu iki ülkenin Suriye Krizi’nde çatışan politikalarını bağımlı değişken olarak ele alarak bu iki değişken arasındaki neden-sonuç ilişkisini araştırmaktadır. Bundaki amaç Astana Süreci öncesi zaman dilimi olan 2011-2015 yılları arasında Türkiye ve İran’ın Suriye Krizi’nde izledikleri politikaların içerisinde bu iki ülkenin birbirleriyle çatışan bölgesel ihtirasların rolünü ortaya koymaktır. Çalışma bunu yaparken, neden-sonuç ilişkilerini sistematik biçimde gösterme imkânı sağlaması hasebiyle oyun kuramsal yaklaşımı araştırma yöntemi olarak kullanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye, İran, Suriye Krizi, Ortadoğu, Oyun Kuramsal Analiz, Tercih Sıralaması, Nash Dengesi

The Strategic Interaction between Turkey and Iran in the Syrian Crisis: A Game Theoretical Analysis of the Time Frame from 2011 to 2015

The Syrian crisis has revealed the clashing strategic interests of Turkey and Iran. The two states are pursuing opposite policies on the Syrian crisis to such an extent that Turkish regional policies concentrate on the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, whereas Iran devotes its resources to helping the regime stay in power. The reasons of these clashing policies are important that they reflect regional objectives of Turkey and Iran. In this respect, this study investigates the causal relationship between the regional ambitions of Turkey and Iran, as the independent variable, and the contradictory policies of these two countries in the Syrian crisis, as the dependent variable. By doing so, it aims to articulate the role of Turkish and Iranian regional ambitions by taking into account their clashing policies towards the Syrian crisis from 2011 to 2015, the time frame before the Astana Process. As of the methodology, this study applies game theoretical modeling because this methodology helps manifestation of a cause-and-effect relationship in a systematized way.

Keywords:

Turkey, Iran, Syrian Crisis, the Middle East, Game Theoretical Analysis, Preference Ordering, Nash Equilibrium,

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