Serdar ÖZTÜRK, Buket ALTINÖZ

275131

ABD-ÇİN TİCARET SAVAŞLARININ ŞANGAY MENKUL KIYMETLER BORSASI KOMPOZİT ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD’nin Çin mallarına uyguladığı ithalat tarifeleri ile Çin’in ABD’den ithal ettiği mallar üzerine uyguladığı ithalat tarifelerinin Şangay Menkul Kıymetler Borsası Kompozit Endeksi’ne etkisinin 1991-2016 dönemi için incelenmesidir. Çin’in ana makroekonomik değişkenleri kontrol değişken olarak seçilmiştir. Bu amaçla, çalışmada ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımından faydalanılmıştır. Ampirik sonuçlar, ABD tarafından uygulanan tarife oranlarındaki artışın uzun vadede Şangay hisse senedi endeksini olumsuz yönde etkilediğini göstermiştir. Ayrıca analizde kullanılan makroekonomik değişkenlerin ikisi olan M2 para arzı ve enflasyon oranının borsa endeksi üzerinde pozitif yönlü bir etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ABD’nin Çin mallarına uyguladığı ithalat tarifelerine dayanan ABD-Çin ticaret savaşının Çin borsasına zarar verdiği söylenebilir. Elde edilen sonuçlarla ABD’nin bu savaşın kazananı mı yoksa kaybedeni mi olduğu söylenememekle birlikte, Çin’in kesinlikle kaybeden taraf olduğu söylenebilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:

ARDL, Tarife Oranları, Hisse Senedi Getirileri, ARDL

THE EFFECT OF US-CHINA TRADE WARS ON SHANGHAI STOCK EXCHANGE COMPOSITE INDEX

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of US import tariffs on Chinese goods and China import tariffs on US goods on Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for the period from 1991 to 2016. It is selected Chinese main macroeconomic variables as control variables. For this purpose, it is used ARDL boundary testing approach in this study. Empirical results suggest that an increase in tariffs rate applied by US affect negatively to Shanghai stock index in the long term. In addition, broad money supply and inflation rate, which are two of the macroeconomic variables used in the analysis, has a positive impact on it. Consequently, the US-China trade war, which based on US import tariffs on Chinese goods, damages for China stock market. With these results we cannot say whether the US is a winner or loser, but we can say that China is definitely the loser.
Keywords:

Tariffs, Stock Returns, ARDL,

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Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi-Cover
  • ISSN: 1302-1966
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 2 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 1999
  • Yayıncı: Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi
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