TÜRKİYE’DE GİBSON ÇELİŞKİSİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ (1970-2009)

Öz Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisi için Gibson Çelişkisi’nin geçerliliğini test etmektir. 1970-2009 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada, tüketici fiyat endeksi ve nominal faiz oranı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Fiyat seviyesi ve faiz oranı arasındaki ilişkiler, Johansen eş- bütünleşme analizi ve hata düzeltme modeli kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde fiyat seviyesi ve nominal faiz oranı arasında pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki vardır. Ayrıca hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testleri, fiyat seviyesi ile faiz oranı arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışmada yapılan tüm analizler, Gibson Çelişkisi’nin Türkiye için geçerli olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

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