REEL DÖVİZ KURUNUN TİCARET DENGESİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Öz Bu çalışmada, reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenliğiyle ticaret dengesi arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri Türkiye’nin 1992:I-2006:IV dönemi verileri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Uzun dönemde devalüasyonun ticaret dengesini iyileştireceği yönündeki Marshall-Lerner (M-L) koşulunun ampirik olarak desteklenmediği bulgusu elde edilmiştir. Reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenliğinin ticaret dengesi üzerindeki kısa dönem etkileri ise anlamlı çıkmamıştır.

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* Bu konuda bak. Arize (1987, 1990, 1991, 1994), Gylfason and Risager (1984), Bahmani- Oskooee (1985).

i Literatürde, ticaret dengesi genellikle ihracatın ithalat oranı ya da tersi biçiminde alınmaktadır.

Bkz. Arize (1994), Oskooee (2001), Onafowora, (2003).

iie serisinin white-noise olmadığı durumda, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi kullanılabilir.

te serisinin white-noise olmadığı durumda, augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi kullanılabilir.

iii Shirvani ve Wilbrate (1997), Oskooee ve Brooks (1999), Arize (1994), Gomez ve Ude (2006),

Rose ve Yellen (1989) ve Rose (1991).

iv Literatürde, ticaret dengesi genellikle ihracatın ithalat oranı ya da tersi biçiminde alınmaktadır.

Bkz. Arize (1994), Oskooee (2001), Onafowora, (2003).