TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE ENFLASYON VE REEL MİLLİ GELİR ARASINDAKİ ÇEVRİMSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Öz Çalışmamızda reel gelir ve enflasyon arasındaki çevrimsellik özellikleri bazı çağdaş filtreleme yöntemleri kullanılarak Türkiye ekonomisi koşullarında incelenmeye çalışılmaktadır. 1987Q1-2007Q2 inceleme dönemi için elde ettiğimiz bulgular, çevrimsel reel gelir bileşeninin iş-çevrimi dalgalanmalarının kalıcılığını yansıtabilecek şekilde güçlü ve pozitif bir ardışık bağımlılık gösterdiğini, reel çıktının oldukça yüksek bir oynaklık (volatility) derecesine sahip olduğunu ve aynı zamanda enflasyon ile reel gelir arasındaki ters-çevrimsel bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu göstermiştir. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye ekonomisi koşullarında reel gelirde gözlenen çevrimsel-temelli dalgalanmaların ekonominin maruz kaldığı arz-temelli bazı şoklar yüzünden meydana gelmiş olabileceği şeklinde bir çıkarsamaya ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

Agénor, P.R., McDermott, C.J. ve Prasad, E.S. (1999) “Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts”, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/35.

Aguiar, M. ve Gopinath, G. (2007), “Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend”, Journal of Political Economy, 115, 69-102.

Alper, C.E. (1998) “Nominal Stylized Facts of Turkish Business Cycles”, METU Studies in Development, 25(2), ss. 233-44.

Alper, C.E. (2002) “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, 38(4), ss. 22-54.

Ateşoğlu, H.S. ve Dutkowsky, D.H. (1995) “Money, Output and Prices in Turkey”, Applied Economics Letters, 2, ss. 38-41.

Backus, D.K. ve Kehoe, P.J. (1992) “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles”, American Economic Review, 82(4), September, ss. 864-88.

Backus, D.K., Kehoe, P.J. ve Kydland, F.E. (1995), “International Business Cycles”, T.F. Cooley, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, Princeton, 331-56.

Baxter, M. ve King, R.G. (1999) “Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, ss. 575-93.

Burns, A.F. ve Mitchell, W.C. (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, NewYork: NBER.

Canova, F. (1998). “Detrending and Business Cycle Facts”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41, ss. 475-512.

Cashin, P. ve Ouliaris, S. (2001) “Key Features of Australian Business Cycles”, IMF Working Paper, WP/01/171, November.

Chadha, B. ve Prasad, E. (1994) “Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence from the G-7”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34, ss. 239-57.

Dibooğlu, S. ve Kibritçioğlu, A. (2004) “Inflation, Output Growth, and Stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002”, Journal of Economics and Business, 56, ss. 43-61.

Ertuğrul, A. ve Selçuk, F. (2002), “Turkish Economy: 1980-2001”, A. Kibritçioğlu, F. Selçuk and L. Rittenberg, Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey, Ashgate Pub. Ltd., ss. 13-40.

Fiorito, R. ve Kollintzas, T. (1994) “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G-7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective”, European Economic Review, 38, ss. 235-69.

Göktaş, Ö. (2005), Teorik ve Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi, İstanbul: Beşir Kitabevi.

Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37, ss. 424–38.

Hodrick, R.J. ve Prescott, E.C. (1997) “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, ss. 1-16.

Hoffmaister, A.W. ve Roldós, J.E. (1997) “Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and LatinAmerica?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/9, January. Kydland, F.E. ve Prescott, E.C. (1990) “Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth”, FRB of Minneapolis Ouarterly Review, Spring, ss. 3- 18.

Kydland, F.E. ve Zarazaga, C.E.J.M. (1997) “Is the Business Cycle of Argentina Different?”, FRB of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter, ss. 21-36.

Lopez, H., Fabrizio, S. ve Ubide, A. (1997) “How Long is the Long Run? A Dynamic Analysis of the Spanish Business Cycle”, IMF Working Paper, WP/97/74, June.

Lucas, R.E., Jr., (1977), “Understanding Business Cycles”, K. Brunner ve A.H. Meltzer, Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 5, North-Holland, Amsterdam, ss. 7-29.

Metin-Özcan, K., Voyvoda, E. ve Yeldan, E. (2001) “Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 22(1), ss. 217-53.

Rand, J. ve Tarp, F. (2002) “Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?”,World Development, 30(12), 2071-088.

Serletis, A. ve Krause, D. (1996) “Nominal Sytlized Facts of U.S. Business Cycles”, FRB of St. Louis Review, July/August, ss. 49-54.

Stock, J.H. ve Watson, M.W. (1998) “Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series”, NBER Working Paper, w6528, April.

Woitek, U. (1997), Business Cycles An International Comparison of Stylized Facts in a Historical Perspective, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag.

Zarnowitz, V. ve Özyıldırım, A. (2002) “Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles”, NBER Working Paper, w8736, January.