KRİPTOPARA BİRİMLERİ PİYASASINDA PUMP&DUMP MANİPULASYONLARININ İKİ AŞAMALI ANALİZİ

Bu çalışma kapsamında, kripto para birimi piyasalarındaki manipülatif faaliyetlerin belgelenmesi ve yapısının incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla kripto para birimi piyasalarındaki fiyat sıçramaları iki aşamalı olarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın ilk aşamasında, bir kripto borsa olan Binance bünyesinde aktif bir hesap oluşturulmuş ve Telegram üzerinden haberleşen manipülasyon grupları ile birlikte hareket edilerek “Pump and Dump” tipi bir manipülasyona dahil olunmuştur. Deney kapsamında 30 saniye süren bir dizi işlem sonucunda %25 getiri elde edilmiştir. Buna ek olarak, bu tür manipülasyonların işlem hacmi düşük olan genç piyasaları hedef aldığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu bulgulardan hareketle olgun piyasaların tepkilerini ölçme amacıyla, Bitcoin fiyat serisi üzerinde dakikalık frekansta 1.162.887 gözlem kullanılarak Jump-Difüzyon analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz bulgularına göre kripto para birimlerinin belirli bir olgunluğa ulaştıktan sonra manipülasyonlara karşı bağışıklık kazandığı gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda teknolojik olarak daha başarılı olan yeni kripto para birimlerinin manipülasyonlardan kaynaklı sebeplerden dolayı talep görmediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, gelecek çalışmaların kripto para birimlerinde manipülasyonu önleyici yazılımsal bileşenler üzerine gerçekleştirilmesine dair önerilerde bulunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Finansal Manipülasyon, Kripto Para, Jump Difüzyon

A TWO STAGE ANALYSIS OF PUMP & DUMP MANIPULATIONS ON THE CYRPTOCURRENCY MARKET

Aim of this study is to document and analyze the manipulative transactions in the cryptocurrency market. With this purpose, manipulative price jumps in the cryptocurrency markets are discussed in two stages. In the first stage of the study, an active account was created within Binance, a crypto stock exchange, and it was involved in pump and dump manipulations working with groups communicating over Telegram. As a result of a series of operations lasting only 30 seconds, a 25% rate of return was achieved. In addition, it has been determined that, these manipulations target young markets with low transaction volumes. Based on these findings, a Jump-Diffusion analysis was applied on Bitcoin price series using 1,162,887 high-frequency observations on Bitcoin price series for the purpose of measuring the reactions of mature markets to these manipulation attempts. According to findings, it was observed that cryptocurrencies gained immunity against manipulations after reaching a certain maturity. As a result of the study, it was concluded that new technologically successful crypto currencies were not in demand due to prevalence of manipulations. Future work has been advised to be made in the cryptocurrencies on the manipulation-preventing software components.

Keywords:

Financial Manipulation, Cryptocurrency, Jump Diffusion,

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