Hisse Senetleri, Banka Kredileri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi, literatürde ilgi gören konuların başında gelmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde hisse senedi, banka kredileri ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 1998:01-2013:02 dönemleri için araştırılmıştır. Değişkenlerin durağanlığı Lumsdaine ve Papell 1997 ve Lee ve Strazicich 2003 testleri ile sınandıktan sonra, değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki Hatemi-J 2008 eşbütünleşme testi ile incelenmiştir. Hisse senetleri, banka kredileri ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çoklu yapısal kırılmalar altında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Toda-Yamamoto 1995 nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre ise, banka kredilerinden hisse senetlerine, hisse senetlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, banka kredilerinin ekonomik büyümeyi doğrudan etkilemediğini ancak hisse senetleri üzerinden dolaylı olarak ekonomik büyümeyi etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Stock Markets, Bank Loans and Economic Growth Relationship: The Case of Turkey

Relationship between financial development and economic growth is one of the popular topics in the literature. In this study, the relationship between stocks, bank loans and economic growth for the period between 1998:01 and 2013:02 are investigated for Turkish economy. We test whether variables are stationary by using Lumsdaine and Papell 1997 and Lee and Strazicich 2003 unit root tests. After unit root test, long term relationship between variables are tested with Hatemi-J 2008 cointegration tests. Long-term relationships under multiple structural breaks are identified between stocks, bank loans and economic growth According to the result of Toda-Yamamoto 1995 causality tests, there is unidirectional causality relationship from bank loans to stocks, and from stocks to economic growth. Obtained results, show that bank loans do not directly affect economic growth, but indirectly affect economic growth via stocks

Kaynakça

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