2015 TÜRKİYE PARLAMENTO SEÇİMLERİ IŞIĞINDA CHP'NİN OYLARINI ARTIRAMAMASININ NEDENLERİ

Bu makalenin amacı 2015 Türkiye Parlamento Seçimleri ışığında Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi’nin (CHP) oylarında durgunluğun nedenlerini açıklamaktır. Oy verme davranışı teorilerinden yararlanarak makale, parti içindeki örgütsel zaafiyeletlerin ve inandırıcılık sorununun partinin uzun dönemli tarihsel-yapısal sorunların üstesinden gelmede – temel olarak Türkiye’de toplumun muhafazakar çevre ve laik merkez arasında bölünmesi - önemli engel olarak ortaya çıktığını ileri sürmektedir. Bunun yanında Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) ve taraftarları arasındaki güçlü özdeşleşme parti değiştirmeyi güçleştirmektedir. Özdeşleşme herşeyden once ekonomik fayda ve kamu hizmetlerinin sağlanmasıyla ve Türk siyasetindeki artan kutuplaşma ve bölünmeyle gerçekleşmektedir. Son olarak 7 Haziran ve 1 Kasım 2015 tarihleri arasında politik ortamdaki değişiklikler güvenlik ve istikrar meselelerini gündemin tepesine çıkarmış ve AKP’nin 1 Kasım seçimleri öncesinde yaptığı değişiklikler CHP’ye muhtemel oy akışının önüne geçmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

CHP, Oy Verme Davranışı, Türkiye’de Siyaset, Türkiye Parlamento Seçimleri

The Reasons of Electoral Stagnation of the CHP in the Light of the 2015 Turkish Parliamentary Elections

It is the intention in this article to explain the electoral stagnation of the Republican People’s Party (Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CHP) in the light of the 2015 parliamentary elections in Turkey. Drawing on theories of voting behavior, the article uncovers the organizational shortcomings within the party and the problem of credibility that have emerged as significant impediments to the party in addressing long-term historical-structural issues, mainly the division of Turkish society between the religious periphery and the secular center. Furthermore, the strong identification between the ruling Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) and its partisans have made party-switching difficult, having been achieved, above all, through the provision of economic benefits and public services and the consolidation of party identification through growing polarization and division in Turkish politics. Last but not least, the changes to the political environment between the June 7 and November 1, 2015 elections, pushed stability and security to the top of the agenda, as well as AKP’s electoral adjustments in the run-up to the November 1 elections inhibited any possible flow of votes to the CHP.

Keywords:

CHP, Voting Behavior, Turkish Politics, Turkish Parliamentary Elections,

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